Monday, May 2, 2016

Trumped Up Election Predictions

Election predictions are a dime a dozen, and by the time this is actually posted on Tuesday, may be worth even less than that. Regardless, here are my predictions:

United States POTUS:

On the Democratic side, I can't say anyone will be surprised when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins Indiana's primary on Tuesday. Senator Bernie Sanders has done a lot of events in Indiana, so I suspect it will be closer than the polls predicted. But Clinton has a lot of ties to the Democratic establishment, and a lot (not all) of Indiana Democrats are loyal to the Clintons. So I'm going with Hillary Clinton with a 53-54% of the vote.

Over with the GOP, I don't think there's any doubt that Donald J Trump will walk away with the vast majority of Indiana delegates on Tuesday. One of the amazing things about the Trump campaign is that, in states where Trump wins, he wins across several demographics. So I don't think a state with a lot of evangelicals, or a state with a lot of college degrees, is necessarily going to hurt Trump as it has in some other primaries or caucuses. Notice that most of Trump's events have been in the urban areas of Indiana (Indianapolis, Carmel, South Bend, Terre Haute, Evansville). Those areas are spread out throughout the state that I think it'll be difficult for a Senator Ted Cruz to even win a single Congressional district. I think Trump will get 59% of the vote statewide and easily carry all Congressional districts.

US Senate (GOP)

The handful of Todd Young ads I've heard have largely been positive. All of the PAC and campaign ads I've seen and heard from Congressman Marlin Stutzman have been negative in tone. I think the limited polling done in this race is within the ballpark of the internal polls the Stutzman campaign is looking at. I don't think this race will be close at all. I'm giving Young a 60-40% edge.

US Congress (District 9) (GOP)

This is an all out brawl between State Senator Erin Houchins and Tennessee Indiana businessman Trey Hollingsworth. Several other candidates, including Indiana Attorney General Greg Zoeller, are in this race as well but seem to be gaining little traction. There have been no real public polling done on a district level, but the cynic in me is giving the edge to Hollingsworth with 45% of the vote with Houchings coming in at 25%.

Tomorrow, I hope to share with you some insight on the winners and losers.

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