The Party of Donald Trump and Mike Pence

Image: Via ABC News.

BREAKING: As I was composing this blog post, Brian Howey is reporting that no offer has been made and that all the VP contenders have been summoned to meet with Donald Trump. Governor Pence must withdraw his name by noon Friday, or his name will stay on the ballot unless he dies or moves out of state. Pence faces the decision to stay in the Veepstakes and withdraw his name from the Governor's race, or stay in the Governor's race and withdraw from the Veepstakes.

Original post below:

Pretty much the entire political world knows by now that presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump has picked Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his Vice Presidential nominee. However, some of the Trump Supporting Media (TSM) are saying a VP pick has not been finalized. It will be kind of hilarious if Trump has Mike Pence come all the way out to the North East only to be told "Hey Mike, can you get Newt's luggage for me?"

But I want to address what this actually means in terms of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, and what this means for the Republican Party.

I know some #NeverTrump-ers read this blog. They're friends of mine, or we interact on social media. I think many of you have been in denial for a while now. When I told a fellow blogger who has largely been supportive of Governor Pence and critical of Donald Trump, he responded with:

• "It isn't official, is it?" (denial)
• and "waiting for the words out of Deadbeat Donald's mouth" (anger)

He knocked out two of the five stages of grief in the span of two minutes. He only has bargaining, depression, and acceptance to go. By the time you read these words, he might've gotten to all five stages.

Like it or not, the Republican Party is the party of Donald Trump. And Governor Pence doesn't just "fully support" Donald Trump. He believes in Donald Trump so much, that he is going to join Donald Trump as his running mate.

So now that we're here, let's talk about what the Republican Party has become by embracing Donald Trump.

The Republican Party has become a party where people are judged not by their accomplishments or their words, but by their skin color and heritage. Trump is being sued by former Trump University students, a scam barely disguised as a set of seminar course. The judge presiding over the rulings was born in East Chicago, Indiana. But Trump repeatedly told CNN's Jake Tapper that the judge is "Mexican" and that Trump can't get a fair trial in front of the judge because "we're building a wall between here and Mexico". Much of the TSM tried to rush out other allegations against the judge, but Trump didn't mention those in the initial interview.

The Republican Party has become a party where women are judged not by their accomplishments, but by their physical attributes. Among other quotes, Trump singled out former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in an interview saying "Look at that face. Would anyone vote for that?"





I'd go on further, but frankly, if I had to list every negative attribute of Trump, this blog post would never end.

Tomorrow, we'll talk about the implications of Governor Pence leaving the 2012 election, and why it really shouldn't matter electorally, but it probably will.

Scary Electoral Math for 2016 GOP Candidates

Over at the Red State blog, a series of diary entries from Myra Adams has been raising the questions that Republicans interested in winning back the White House really need to be asking. Adams writes about the several (16 that she finds) institutional advantages a Hillary Clinton run for the White House over any other candidate, as well as the steep electoral college challenge any Republican candidate will face against any Democratic candidate.

I think the one aspect Adams didn't hit on is the concept of the "Obama coalition". President Obama's electoral success isn't something unique in what types of voters voted for him (the only notable demographic that voted for him that traditionally went Republican are Asian Americans), but the real success of the Obama coalition was driving the turnout as much as possible. So the question isn't so much if these voters are Obama voters, but if these Obama voters can be relied on to vote for other Democratic candidates for President.

During the 2012 election, Karl Rove summarized what the Romney campaign needed to do to win the election: He needed to win all three major swing states (Ohio, Virginia, Florida), win back the two red states that Obama won in 2008 (Indiana, North Carolina), and pick up one of about a dozen smaller swing states. If any of the first two didn't happen, the Romney campaign would have to pick up several of the smaller swing states to catch up on the electoral map.

As we know, that didn't work out. Not only did the Romney campaign not win, but they didn't win a single one of the big three swing states. And even if they swept all three swing states, they still would've been four electoral votes short.

And while some may be quick to point out that many blue states have Republicans in elected offices from a state wide election, many of those were won in midterm 2010 elections, which not only had a different voting electorate but was very much a GOP wave election. The GOP can't rely on that happening during a Presidential campaign.

A lot can happen between now and November, 2016. But if I was at the RNC right now, I'd be hoping that the Obama coalition leaves with Obama, and crossing my fingers that Generic Boring White Guy gets the Democratic nod rather than Hillary Clinton or Vice President Joe Biden.