Howey Politics Poll Raises More Questions with IN's Senate Race

Indiana's US Senate race has lacked a lot of polling despite being competitive. Because Indiana outlaws so-called "robopolling", organizations like Public Policy Polling and Gallup have stayed away while mostly internal polling have dominated the polling for this tossup election.

Today's Howey Politics poll, the crosstabs of which were allegedly released during a media event but haven't been posted online either at Howey's site or elsewhere, show Democrat Joe Donnelly at 47% against Republican Richard Mourdock at 36%. with a +/-3.5% margin of error. Libertarian nominee Andrew Horning is at 6%.

Taking a look back at the May poll before the Republican primary, the HPI poll also pegged a Mourdock victory over incumbent Senator Richard Lugar in the GOP primary. They predicted Mourdock had a base of 43% and could go as high as 48%, while Lugar's base started at 35% and only topped out at 38%.

What Howey didn't predict was the surge of support for Mourdock in the Republican primary. Out of 661,606 votes cast, Mourdock earned over 60% at 400,321. Lugar even lost Marion County, the county of which he served as Mayor of Indianapolis in the 1970s.

For a while, I've been saying that Libertarian candidate Horning has been polling remarkably high and his support will likely deflate if the race remains competitive between Donnelly and Mourdock. The conventional wisdom, even among Republican movers-and-shakers, is that Donnelly is going to win and it isn't worth the time to invest more money in a losing Senate candidate. And while Horning might lose support from disaffected Democrats who will come home to vote for Donnelly, he might gain support from Republicans who can't stomach Mourdock but will vote for the GOP team in every other election.

This will be interesting to see how it all turns out.

Direct Mail War, Part I: Indiana's US Senate Race

For the first time in a while, one of Indiana's US Senate races is drawing national attention. With the defeat of Senator Richard Lugar by State Treasurer Richard Mourdock in the Republican primary, the general election race between Mourdock and Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly is drawing attention from both sides. A year ago, it was almost a forgone conclusion that Republicans would gain a slim majority in the Senate. But now, with some primary shenanigans and a few gaffes here and there, Democrats think they might be able to hold onto a slim majority.

What gets a lot of attention in political races is the television ad wars, and to a lesser extent, Internet based ads. These types of ads are easy to access for the Gang of 500, the media people and the pundits that push the national media's narrative. Sure, they live in the Washington D.C. or New York City area, and don't see the ads on TV themselves. But they have access to media libraries and the Internet and can see them that way.

What often gets lost in that coverage is the much more effective, and often more expensive, direct mail war. There's a variety of reasons why it isn't covered, and to local media's credit they sometimes do cover them in their online content. But it is still something not talked much about.

Since I have a...shall we say, diverse primary voting history, I tend to get stuff from both political sides. And this weekend, I was bombarded with stuff from FreedomWorks. The candidate they're backing, Mourdock, had a bit of a gaffe last week and they're trying to remind people what this election is really about: How buddy-buddy Joe Donnelly is with Barack Obama, and how politically, they're basically identical.

This 39 page book is incredibly well written and produced. It includes footnotes for sources as well as a 16 page appendix if you REALLY wanted to dig into the original sources.

Having thumbed through it, I started to notice something. There is a lot about Joe Donnelly in here. There is a lot about President Obama as well, pointing out what they see as similarities. But this mailer is not about Richard Mourdock. In fact, among the 39 pages, Mourdock is only mentioned between pages 7-10 for a total of five times. Senator Lugar also gets the same amount of mentions as well, in about the same page spread.

I also received two more, more traditional mailers. Again, they focus on Donnelly, Obama, and specifically hone in on the deficit and debt. My favorite part of SuperPAC mailers is the imagery. The United States as a dollar bill, burning. The ATM just spewing money. It is great! Coke should hire these people to really lay the smack down on Pepsi.

Guest Post: Why I Support Treasurer Mourdock in the GOP Senate Primary

EDITOR'S NOTE: This is one of several guest posts where voters express their support of candidates in tomorrow's primary. Brent Smith, an Indianapolis based food blogger, has chosen to vote for Treasurer Richard Mourdock in tomorrow's GOP primary. Mourdock is running against incumbent US Senator Richard Lugar. 



Conservative. Republican. Some people use the two terms almost interchangeably. However, the truth is the vast majority of us that consider ourselves the latter only do so because we are first and foremost the former. Conservatism is the philosophy that informs the choice of political party. However, as time wears on more and more of us are realizing that an elected official having an R beside their name doesn't necessarily mean they buy into our philosophy of constitutionally limited governance any more than they buy into tabloid headlines declaring JFK to be a space alien or the profitability of a Rosie O’Donnell swimsuit calendar. The only thing they really buy into is their own desperate need to cling to power, and any attempt at being principled is derided as somehow “extreme”. What nonsense.

Richard Mourdock appeals to me and other conservatives because he is one of us. A principled conservative? Yes, but absolutely mainstream in terms of conservative thought. He’s pro-life. He supports an individual right to own and use firearms. He opposes the wasting of taxpayer money on bailouts. He believes in the crazy idea that government shouldn’t spend more money than it generates in revenue. He believes that the “advice and consent” provision of the Constitution isn’t just another phrase that means rubber-stamping the President’s leftist Supreme Court nominees. These are agenda items on which every Republican should be able to agree. However, the campaign of Richard Lugar would want you to believe something entirely different.

According to the Lugar campaign such positions listed above are that of a “right wing extremist”. Are those your positions? Do you consider yourself an extremist? I know I certainly don’t. What are some positions I would describe as out of the mainstream of political thought? I’m glad you asked. Let’s list a few: Supporting a bailout for Wall Street, supporting Supreme Court justices that believe it’s perfectly constitutional for the Federal Government to make you buy a product, supporting amnesty for illegal aliens,
supporting taxpayer funded abortion, supporting restrictions on gun ownership, support for the disastrous Law of the Sea Treaty that would sacrifice American sovereignty, support for the auto industry bailout that Richard Mourdock opposed in court in order to protect secured bondholders. These are all things that Richard Lugar has supported. Do these seem like standard conservative positions to you? The Lugar campaign is right. There is one out-of-the-mainstream republican in this race. It’s their candidate.

I hate to say it, but I believe our country is in trouble. Our debt is soaring, people are dropping from the workforce like flies, our bureaucracy runs roughshod over job creators, and Dick Lugar has had 35 years to try to stop it. Unfortunately it has done nothing but get progressively worse. We have to make a change. It’s time to elect Richard Mourdock.

Guest Post: Why I Support Richard Lugar

EDITOR'S NOTE: In lieu of doing candidate profiles (which is actually quite hard to do in a primary race when candidates agree on 99% of the issues), I'm offering voters a place to voice their support for the candidates they are most passionate about. If you are interested in voicing support for a candidate, please feel free to contact me via e-mail at mamstone@firehawktechnologies.com 


First up is a guest post from Chris Douglas of Indianapolis.  Chris is a decorated Air Force Officer, business owner, employer , and eighth generation Hoosier. He is supporting Richard Lugar in Tuesday's GOP primary.

In the Republican Primary on Tuesday, I am voting with enthusiasm not only for Richard Lugar, but against Richard Mourdock.  I encourage every Hoosier to vote in the Primary and do the same.

Why am I supporting Richard Lugar?  The list of reasons is extensive.  He is a Senator in the greatest tradition of Ancient Rome and of the New Republic that America became.   A man whose intellect, integrity to mission, and dedication to America's cause is on a historic plane.  He has changed the course of history in Indiana and the world... by effecting a unification of government in Indianapolis that redirected civic energy into a revitalized city rather than away from a crumbling one....   by guiding U.S. support suddenly from a Philippine dictatorship to a true Philippine democracy...  by navigating into U.S.  law historic arms reduction treaties with previously implacable national foes... indeed, by seeing down a long and winding road to the national and world terror that would be possible were nuclear weapons to fall into the hands of fanatic, suicidal enemies, and arresting that possibility peacefully. 

Domestically, Lugar has operated with immense political courage.  Promoting Indiana's traditional (though not universally shared) culture of compassion, Lugar supported an avenue to responsible citizenship for foreign youths within our borders who would otherwise be bereft of hope for a productive future, destined only to undermine rather than contribute to our prosperity.  Rather than buckle to extremists, he helped salvage the banking system, and thus the economy, from collapse in 2008.  (Hoosiers were never told, nor could we be for the panic it would generate, that we were within days of ATMS no longer dispensing cash; groceries no longer honoring checks or credit cards; domestic and international trade collapsing; and our employers' payrolls torched in a banking conflagration as bad as the Great Depression. )  Rather than to support gridlock and the disgraceful and dishonorable loss of our national credit rating that ensued because of extremism, Lugar took the unpopular but necessary step of supporting a raise in the short term debt ceiling, thus ensuring that the U.S. government honored payment on maturing Treasuries, without which cash even some of our greatest corporations would have failed to make payroll!   Far easier, as so many callow and cowardly politicians did, to place popular but unconscionable votes against all of these, playing upon the ignorance of Hoosiers as to the real perils at hand.  It is to master the issues on our behalf, while we are occupied with our livelihoods, that we endeavor to send great men to Washington, and Lugar is among the greatest men in Washington today. 

But I am not only supporting among the greatest men we have; I am opposing among the worst .  Mourdock has chosen to play upon our ignorance of the issues  and attack Lugar for the very votes that most reflect his integrity while he chose the national interest over his own political fortune.   That is despicable. 

Alas, my concerns about Mourdock run far deeper than his personal electioneering.  First, he from the beginning was supported not by Hoosiers, but by the shadowy network of multi-Billionaires who conceived of and established the Tea Party before Obama was even elected.  Their motivations have always been plain:  to preserve recent changes in the tax code, to which Mourdock has so helpfully pledged himself, which give to the super rich lower tax rates on passive dividend income than the tax rates on the earned income of the working class.  The patriot Lugar has made no such pledge to these billionaires, and so they must destroy him.

Without the overwhelming financial support from outside Indiana, Mourdock's bid would have died in the crib.  But it was the millions of dollars in SuperPAC money spent on his behalf that have deceived and distracted Hoosiers from our real interests.  The former Mayor of Indianapolis, military officer, Shortridge High School graduate, and holder of a farmstead in Marion County not a Hoosier?  A preposterous red herring.   The millions of dollars spent by SuperPACs to defame Lugar are still but a rounding error in the income the billionaires save annually in dividends taxed at privileged rates.  $5 million or even $10 million to distract Hoosiers and secure a senator's vote for hundreds of millions in tax privileges?  Cheap!

I'm concerned also by the fact that at least one of the billionaire families involved derives its fortune from the energy industry;  that Mr. Mourdock is an energy industry geologist who even while in office referred on at least one web page to continuing work as a "consultant"; and that this energy industry geologist wants to get rid of the Environmental Protection Agency, an institution first founded by one Republican (Nixon) and run by another.. indeed... by a Hoosier (Ruckelshaus)!  (I remember when the skies were gray in Indiana... and fox, goose, mallard duck, crane, and great blue heron were not to be seen.)

Finally, I have concerns about how it was that Indiana came to acquire the junk bonds of Chrysler in the very month in which the Corporation's collapsing value became public.  Did some lucky investor succeed in unloading their bonds into Indiana's pension funds?  Did an investor group succeed in moving the bonds into Indiana funds so that Indiana would front for the litigation that corporate insiders in that month would have known was coming?  Why didn't some other investor group lead the litigation?  Did Indiana's tax payers shoulder more expense and suffer greater losses than necessary?    The personal relationship between Indiana's Treasurer and the Chairman of Chrylser's owner, Cerberus, troubles me.  What communication took place? 

In short, the day is no doubt coming when Senator Lugar must be replaced.  On that day, let it be by a man or woman, funded and supported by Hoosiers more than by outside interests, one whose character and judgment we can trust to master issues when we cannot, and vote with courage and integrity in Hoosiers interests when we ourselves can't.  Until the day that Lugar is no longer capable and a suitable replacement is apparent, I view it as the calling of all Hoosiers to vote in the Republican Primary and to cast their vote to return Richard Lugar to Washington.    

IN-GOP Senate Debate Tonight: Preview

The debate between US Senator Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is tonight. Both are competing to be the GOP nominee in the United States Senate race in Indiana. The winner on May 8 will be competing with Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly in the fall.

You can view the debate via C-SPAN here or listen here. It starts at 7pm EST.

I talked to some of the supporters that were lined up outside of the debate's venue just a few minutes ago.

My thoughts, as follows:

Mourdock's supporters are much more passionate. They are really committed to their candidate and give a hint that they might not turn out for Richard Lugar in the fall.

On the other hand, they are really attached to two issues: Lugar's residency and Lugar's votes for Supreme Court justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor. They view those as votes for liberal justices and that Democrats wouldn't vote for conservative justices appointed by a Republican President. The Mourdock supporters I talked to struggle to go outside of those two issues besides generalities such as "love for the Constitution" and "patriotic".

Lugar's supporters think Lugar will be an asset when the Senate falls into GOP hands, and believe he is vital to saving the country. Especially if President Barack Obama is elected to a second term. They say that he knows the most about foreign policy than anyone else in D.C. ("including the President," as one Lugar supporter quipped to me).

When I questioned some Lugar supporters about his votes for Sotomayor and Kagan, they claim that it is because he believes and respects the Constitution's "advice and consent" role in choosing judges. They say that as long as a President nominates someone, the Senate should defer to the President unless the nominee is blatantly unqualified.

And despite what some Lugar surrogates in the media act like, it seems that regular supporters would be happy to support Mourdock if he becomes the nominee. One Lugar supporter told me he doesn't think Mourdock is a "monster" (his words, not mine), but he does think Indiana would lose a great asset if Lugar doesn't win the nomination.

There was a collective fear among Lugar supporters that Mourdock is a more vulnerable candidate in the fall.

Neither Mourdock or Lugar supporters that I talked to were open to voting for Democrat candidate Joe Donnelly.

Tune in if you want. I'm sure it'll be dry, but I'm hoping some crazy from someone will come out.

More on Matthew Tully's Latest Love Letter to Dick Lugar

Indianapolis Star political columnist Matthew Tully and US Senator Richard Lugar have been having a love affair ever since 2012 started. Tully would write a column about how much he loves Lugar, how his "statesman like demeanor" is needed in Washington D.C., and the other talking points Lugar surrogates have been using for much of the last year. Or, sometimes to mix it up a bit, Tully would slam Lugar's opponent, state treasurer Richard Mourdock. And when Tully does that, he usually bemoans how "partisan" Mourdock is or how "out of touch" Mourdock is with Hoosier values.

So can I ask, again, what in the world do people see in Richard Lugar?

Richard Lugar has been in Washington D.C. for over 30 years.

Over the last 12 years, Richard Lugar has been right there in the United States Senate. Votes have been cast for two wars, a financial bailout with no strings attached, and a federal power grab in K-12 education. And Lugar voted for each of these bills which spent trillions of dollars.

And those initiatives were pushed with huge bipartisan margins. Not just the usual token one vote from the opposition party or some such nonsense. HUGE bipartisan margins in both houses of Congress.

So here's Tully talking about how more bipartisanship is needed.

I say if bipartisanship is going to get us into another war in the Middle East, or is going to give a blank check to Bank of America, then I want whatever the opposite of bipartisanship is.

So here's your chance, Lugar surrogates. Tell me what Senator Lugar has done to clean up any of DC's various messes in the 30+ years he's been there.

What Do My Liberal Friends See in Dick Lugar?

If you've been reading Matthew Tully's Twitter feed or Chris Douglas' Facebook wall, you'd notice that it is a never ending stream of a complete and utter love fest for Senator Richard Lugar and/or viciously attacking State Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who has the nerve to challenge the revered statesman in the May 8th GOP primary.

I think it's worth pointing out that, unlike some on the right, I completely respect my liberal friends in Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated circles. I believe there is a legitamate discussion to be had about what the government's role is in our lives, what services they should and shouldn't provide, and so on. I don't inherently believe that a progressive political viewpoint is anti-American or is incompatible with American values.

That being said, I think politicos such as Tully and Douglas are imagining a Richard Lugar that they support because they pretend Lugar agrees with them on issues when, in fact, that isn't true.

A common theme Douglas strikes on in his well written posts on Facebook is advocating for a progressive tax system. Specifically, let the Bush era tax cuts expire and maybe even raise rates on money that comes from capital gains.

And that's a fair discussion to have. I might not agree, but I'm happy to have that discussion.

So where has Senator Lugar been, over the past 30+ years, and what is his voting record in regards to the tax system which Mr. Douglas believes needs to be changed?

Turns out that Lugar has supported the abolition of the Internal Revenue Service, repeal of the income tax, and replacing all of that with a national sales tax. Lugar is also a recent co-sponsor of the FAIR Tax, which uses a national sales tax as the basis for most federal revenues. If I had to wager a guess, I bet Lugar and Mourdock ac

What about LGBT issues? Well, Lugar has voted for a federal constitutional amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman...twice. He has also supported and voted for the Defense of Marriage Act and voted against the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell. And while the Equal Non-Discrimination Act never came up for a vote in the US Senate, I don't think Lugar is going to be a co-sponsor any time soon.

So, to my moderate and liberal readers, what are these moderate and liberal policies that attract you to Senator Lugar? Because I think you're supporting the idea of a candidate rather than what the candidate actually stands for.