Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Election Predictions???

So what are your thoughts on the elections being held today?

From media reports I heard earlier in the morning, the townships holding school related referendums are having a higher turnout. I know I got a few e-mails from local Tea Party groups promoting action specifically because of these referendums. One of the e-mails pointed out that people can go and vote only for the public question without having to also vote in a partisan primary.

In the race between Ron Gibson, Melina Kennedy, and Sam Carson for the spot to compete with Mayor Greg Ballard in the fall for Mayor of Indianapolis, I think Kennedy is going to win with 65% of the vote. Ron Gibson and Sam Carson will split the rest of it evenly. I might give Gibson a few more points just because his campaign seems a bit more credible than Carson's. Carson has clearly never run for public office before, and it shows every time I hear him speak.

Kennedy: 65%
Gibson: 20%
Carson: 15%

There are very few contested primaries in the council districts, so I believe the slate for both the county Dems and the GOP will easily win. The same can be said of the At-Large GOP candidates as well. Even though the new GOP At-Large candidates lack any type of name recognition, the non-slated challenger is considered a joke in Indianapolis politics. Sure, her name recognition might be high, but it's high for the wrong reasons.

The Democrats' At-Large slated candidates benefit from a very strong slate. However, I think Leroy Robinson is a bit of a weak link. I don't think his bio matches up against the other slated candidates Zach Adamson, John Barth, and incumbent Joanne Sanders, or even that of the unslated Pat Andrews. I've also heard complaints from local Democrats that support for Robinson isn't as solid as it is for the others. Adamson and Barth have been campaigning since 2010 and have earned the trust of local Democrats, whereas support for Robinson seems to mainly come from being a slated candidate rather than any actual earned trust. If Sherron Franklin or Andrews make it through the primary, it'll likely be because Robinson does not.

My final prediction is that Adamson, Andrews, Barth, and Sanders make it through the primary on the D side. Then the county Democrats will have to sit down and decide what to do with an unslated candidate making it through the primary. Will they brush her off, much like the county GOP did to Barbara Malone back in 2007? Or will they support her like uh...well, I can't think of an unslated candidate in recent memory actually receiving party support in the general election.

What are your thoughts? Your predictions?

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